Thursday, October 20, 2011

getting specific | timeline

Let's start laying things out in somewhat greater detail.

If you leave active employment in December 2016, then I think you're looking to start public campaigning (e.g., filing with the state Division of Elections and the FEC; DoE filing is simply informational while FEC is required once >$5,000) in March 2017 for the November 2018 US Senate seat currently held by Bill Nelson. During this period you must:

1) Have a website ready with at least:
.. a) positions on at least 6 major issues primarily as video (text with voice-over) but also available as text.
.. b) outline your basic campaign strategy
.. c) entreat readers to volunteer and/or contribute.

2) Have determined the appropriate online means of donation in-take.

3) Set up an appropriate bank account opening it with an initial candidate loan of ~$2,500 (I would intend to be repaid, but in very small increments over a fairly long period.). Seriously consider credit unions.

4) Perhaps filed with the IRS - anticipating ultimately exceeding their threshold and perhaps needing that to open the bank account.

5) Probably having had to settle on a campaign disclosure software. Note that the FEC has free software available.

6) Investigated web advertising (anticipating outreach rolling out in this order: web, radio, cable, mail) and have "ballpark" estimates on radio/cable by market.

7) Compiled a list of organizations (most probably local/regional) to make initial contacts with (speaking opportunities).

8) Prepared the 15-second, 3-minute, and 15 minute campaign pitches referenced elsewhere.

9) Made certain of reporting requirements (if any) concerning "crash space".

10) I will need something like an iPad to use whenever I'm on the road (which will hopefully be most of the time).

11) Right out of the box, I'll want to know if/how supporters can independently fund and arrange media buys using campaign-designed materials. I'll also want a couple radio ads ready for this purpose. And maybe a couple videos ready for cable (or maybe some kind of web placement) too.

Assuming you got all that (and probably more will be needed) in place, you can go ahead and announce in March 2017.

You need to hit your list of organizations. At each one, you need to get donations, you need to get volunteers, and you need to get referrals (i.e., other places to speak and 'big fish' to solicit).

Since your campaign strategy absolutely has to anticipate at least $500,000 in donations (otherwise you get laughed at; it may have to be higher), the filing fee represents only 2.8% of that. Which means your strategy should divert not more than 10% of donations to the 'filing fee fund' (until such point as it's fully funded) which means you're going to spend 90% (or very nearly) of income on outreach ads. On the assumption that web advertising can be purchased in very cheap units, that means you're going to need to have ads and place ads quickly.

On fundraising, keep in mind these figures for 2010:
Rubio: $21 million
Crist: $13.5 million
Meek: $8.5 million
Looking at these, truthfully, people who might donate $5,000 probably shouldn't even consider you unless you can realistically make a case for raising an absolute minimum of $1 million. Let's (wildly) guess that you can land 20 max donors, that's $100Gs. If the average of other donors is $100, then that's 9,000 donors to reach $1 mil. Assuming 15 months of fund-raising (ignoring a few early start-up months), that's like 600 donors/month or 20 donors per day. Put that way, it's not astronomically insanely ridiculous. But it is really really hard.

Hopefully by Sept 2017 (six months in), you've got other people handling:
* campaign disclosures
* creation of ads
* placement of ads
* website
(is this enough for 6 months?)
Someone to manage the press release list will be needed, but that can likely wait until sometime into 2018.
Hopefully by six months in, I've also raised at least $70,000 (which @ 10% funds the filing fee).

Candidate qualifying is approximately mid-April 2018. If paying the ~$7,000 qualifying fee is 'an issue', then things are going badly; it could be wise to scale back.

By the time of the August 2018 primary (for those other candidates), I must:
* have vastly out-performed any other minor/independent candidate
* have all essential positions filled (hopefully all volunteers)
* have income such that at least $10,000/week can be spent on outreach
* have an organization providing voter venues on a (near) daily basis.
I will have to go upward from here until November 2018.