Just brief thoughts here, at least for now.
Taxes are generally collected to achieve a societal purpose. To the extent that there are deductions, exemptions, credits, they serve to direct activity towards advancing some desired outcomes. To the extent that it's merely revenue, that revenue is subsequently spent towards achieving some desired outcomes. It's ultimately all social engineering.
And of course the original concept of corporations was an entity to perform some socially desirable outcome. (of course now, merely being profitable for investors is considered a sufficient socially desirable outcome.)
So why not a mammoth trade - we'll skip the corporate taxes so long as corporations perform/comply with socially desirable outcomes. In other words, go back to being what they were originally intended to be. (I'm reminded of Harry Browne's 'Great Libertarian Offer': Would you give up your favorite federal programs if it meant you'd never have to pay income tax again?)
Of course in order to be certain of success, we're back to issue #1: strip corporations of the constitutional rights of persons.
Friday, October 21, 2011
less is more?
Can a $1 million budget be effective? Convincing major donors (even minor donors) that it is may be crucial. Here's one attempt to make that case.
Meek & Crist lost in 2010 but their campaigns certainly didn't go unnoticed. On average they raised about $10 mil. How much of that actually reached voters? Some went into salaries. Some went into consultants. Some went into travel. Some went into polling. It should be possible to find out an approximate figure, but it's possible that not more than $5 mil went into actual voter outreach (i.e., tv, radio, web, direct mail).
Given my 'crowd-source' model, my $1 mi budget may mean $900G of out-reach. Furthermore, my encouragement and guidance and simplicity of independent expenditure can mean my own expenditures are matched or even exceeded by voter outreach expenditures by my supporters. Actual effective expenditures may be more like $2 mil.
The most money doesn't always win; the actual requirement is to avoid being 'de minimus'. At $2 mil versus $5 mil, I think it can be argued that I'll not be invisible. And that may be enough.
Also consider that there are 11.2 million registered voters in FL. Say 6 million will participate by voting. Say 2 million of them might be persuaded to vote for me. Say only 2% of those might be persuaded to contribute (that's 40,000). Say the average contribution is $100. That's $4 million. And factoring in the independent expenditure effect above, actual outreach could be more like $8 million. Not saying those numbers will play out, but they're not impossible.
Meek & Crist lost in 2010 but their campaigns certainly didn't go unnoticed. On average they raised about $10 mil. How much of that actually reached voters? Some went into salaries. Some went into consultants. Some went into travel. Some went into polling. It should be possible to find out an approximate figure, but it's possible that not more than $5 mil went into actual voter outreach (i.e., tv, radio, web, direct mail).
Given my 'crowd-source' model, my $1 mi budget may mean $900G of out-reach. Furthermore, my encouragement and guidance and simplicity of independent expenditure can mean my own expenditures are matched or even exceeded by voter outreach expenditures by my supporters. Actual effective expenditures may be more like $2 mil.
The most money doesn't always win; the actual requirement is to avoid being 'de minimus'. At $2 mil versus $5 mil, I think it can be argued that I'll not be invisible. And that may be enough.
Also consider that there are 11.2 million registered voters in FL. Say 6 million will participate by voting. Say 2 million of them might be persuaded to vote for me. Say only 2% of those might be persuaded to contribute (that's 40,000). Say the average contribution is $100. That's $4 million. And factoring in the independent expenditure effect above, actual outreach could be more like $8 million. Not saying those numbers will play out, but they're not impossible.
source & use of funds
Some initial off-hand thoughts.
I think that initially income would be earmarked:
* 10% towards filing fee
* 80% towards voter outreach advertising
* 10% available for other costs (can't imagine there won't be any)
Once the filing fee is funded, 80%/20% should be fine. By that point, things are actually semi-successful and I can imagine having grown into additional activities that might actually require some expenditures.
I think it's unavoidable (and actually desirable) that most funds will be raised via online donations via the website. One will want to minimize any overhead costs (e.g., utilize Paypal if free) but alternatives have to be available to avoid leaving potential donors unable/unwilling to utilize any of the methods presented. (of course mail-in checks are welcome but realize that they will be slow/unwieldy to process.)
Obviously personal appearances must include solicitation. Presumably this won't be a major source.
Max donors (consider that one married donor could result in a $10G check) are probably worth spending time contacting (phone/in-person) individually. I'm unlikely to know many of these myself, so....
I will need independent volunteer fundraisers who either get donations without my involvement or introduce/refer potential major donors to me. This may not be as hard as it seems; there may not be a lot of people who can drop $10Gs on a political campaign, but there are a lot of people who know these people.
As for candidate involvement, I see myself as taking care of my own transportation/meal expenses providing my own phone/computer/online access. Lodging at no cost (i.e., generally "crash space" with supporters). I can see providing a start-up loan that's ultimately repaid to me.
I think that initially income would be earmarked:
* 10% towards filing fee
* 80% towards voter outreach advertising
* 10% available for other costs (can't imagine there won't be any)
Once the filing fee is funded, 80%/20% should be fine. By that point, things are actually semi-successful and I can imagine having grown into additional activities that might actually require some expenditures.
I think it's unavoidable (and actually desirable) that most funds will be raised via online donations via the website. One will want to minimize any overhead costs (e.g., utilize Paypal if free) but alternatives have to be available to avoid leaving potential donors unable/unwilling to utilize any of the methods presented. (of course mail-in checks are welcome but realize that they will be slow/unwieldy to process.)
Obviously personal appearances must include solicitation. Presumably this won't be a major source.
Max donors (consider that one married donor could result in a $10G check) are probably worth spending time contacting (phone/in-person) individually. I'm unlikely to know many of these myself, so....
I will need independent volunteer fundraisers who either get donations without my involvement or introduce/refer potential major donors to me. This may not be as hard as it seems; there may not be a lot of people who can drop $10Gs on a political campaign, but there are a lot of people who know these people.
As for candidate involvement, I see myself as taking care of my own transportation/meal expenses providing my own phone/computer/online access. Lodging at no cost (i.e., generally "crash space" with supporters). I can see providing a start-up loan that's ultimately repaid to me.
Thursday, October 20, 2011
getting specific | timeline
Let's start laying things out in somewhat greater detail.
If you leave active employment in December 2016, then I think you're looking to start public campaigning (e.g., filing with the state Division of Elections and the FEC; DoE filing is simply informational while FEC is required once >$5,000) in March 2017 for the November 2018 US Senate seat currently held by Bill Nelson. During this period you must:
1) Have a website ready with at least:
.. a) positions on at least 6 major issues primarily as video (text with voice-over) but also available as text.
.. b) outline your basic campaign strategy
.. c) entreat readers to volunteer and/or contribute.
2) Have determined the appropriate online means of donation in-take.
3) Set up an appropriate bank account opening it with an initial candidate loan of ~$2,500 (I would intend to be repaid, but in very small increments over a fairly long period.). Seriously consider credit unions.
4) Perhaps filed with the IRS - anticipating ultimately exceeding their threshold and perhaps needing that to open the bank account.
5) Probably having had to settle on a campaign disclosure software. Note that the FEC has free software available.
6) Investigated web advertising (anticipating outreach rolling out in this order: web, radio, cable, mail) and have "ballpark" estimates on radio/cable by market.
7) Compiled a list of organizations (most probably local/regional) to make initial contacts with (speaking opportunities).
8) Prepared the 15-second, 3-minute, and 15 minute campaign pitches referenced elsewhere.
9) Made certain of reporting requirements (if any) concerning "crash space".
10) I will need something like an iPad to use whenever I'm on the road (which will hopefully be most of the time).
11) Right out of the box, I'll want to know if/how supporters can independently fund and arrange media buys using campaign-designed materials. I'll also want a couple radio ads ready for this purpose. And maybe a couple videos ready for cable (or maybe some kind of web placement) too.
Assuming you got all that (and probably more will be needed) in place, you can go ahead and announce in March 2017.
You need to hit your list of organizations. At each one, you need to get donations, you need to get volunteers, and you need to get referrals (i.e., other places to speak and 'big fish' to solicit).
Since your campaign strategy absolutely has to anticipate at least $500,000 in donations (otherwise you get laughed at; it may have to be higher), the filing fee represents only 2.8% of that. Which means your strategy should divert not more than 10% of donations to the 'filing fee fund' (until such point as it's fully funded) which means you're going to spend 90% (or very nearly) of income on outreach ads. On the assumption that web advertising can be purchased in very cheap units, that means you're going to need to have ads and place ads quickly.
On fundraising, keep in mind these figures for 2010:
Rubio: $21 million
Crist: $13.5 million
Meek: $8.5 million
Looking at these, truthfully, people who might donate $5,000 probably shouldn't even consider you unless you can realistically make a case for raising an absolute minimum of $1 million. Let's (wildly) guess that you can land 20 max donors, that's $100Gs. If the average of other donors is $100, then that's 9,000 donors to reach $1 mil. Assuming 15 months of fund-raising (ignoring a few early start-up months), that's like 600 donors/month or 20 donors per day. Put that way, it's not astronomically insanely ridiculous. But it is really really hard.
Hopefully by Sept 2017 (six months in), you've got other people handling:
* campaign disclosures
* creation of ads
* placement of ads
* website
(is this enough for 6 months?)
Someone to manage the press release list will be needed, but that can likely wait until sometime into 2018.
Hopefully by six months in, I've also raised at least $70,000 (which @ 10% funds the filing fee).
Candidate qualifying is approximately mid-April 2018. If paying the ~$7,000 qualifying fee is 'an issue', then things are going badly; it could be wise to scale back.
By the time of the August 2018 primary (for those other candidates), I must:
* have vastly out-performed any other minor/independent candidate
* have all essential positions filled (hopefully all volunteers)
* have income such that at least $10,000/week can be spent on outreach
* have an organization providing voter venues on a (near) daily basis.
I will have to go upward from here until November 2018.
If you leave active employment in December 2016, then I think you're looking to start public campaigning (e.g., filing with the state Division of Elections and the FEC; DoE filing is simply informational while FEC is required once >$5,000) in March 2017 for the November 2018 US Senate seat currently held by Bill Nelson. During this period you must:
1) Have a website ready with at least:
.. a) positions on at least 6 major issues primarily as video (text with voice-over) but also available as text.
.. b) outline your basic campaign strategy
.. c) entreat readers to volunteer and/or contribute.
2) Have determined the appropriate online means of donation in-take.
3) Set up an appropriate bank account opening it with an initial candidate loan of ~$2,500 (I would intend to be repaid, but in very small increments over a fairly long period.). Seriously consider credit unions.
4) Perhaps filed with the IRS - anticipating ultimately exceeding their threshold and perhaps needing that to open the bank account.
5) Probably having had to settle on a campaign disclosure software. Note that the FEC has free software available.
6) Investigated web advertising (anticipating outreach rolling out in this order: web, radio, cable, mail) and have "ballpark" estimates on radio/cable by market.
7) Compiled a list of organizations (most probably local/regional) to make initial contacts with (speaking opportunities).
8) Prepared the 15-second, 3-minute, and 15 minute campaign pitches referenced elsewhere.
9) Made certain of reporting requirements (if any) concerning "crash space".
10) I will need something like an iPad to use whenever I'm on the road (which will hopefully be most of the time).
11) Right out of the box, I'll want to know if/how supporters can independently fund and arrange media buys using campaign-designed materials. I'll also want a couple radio ads ready for this purpose. And maybe a couple videos ready for cable (or maybe some kind of web placement) too.
Assuming you got all that (and probably more will be needed) in place, you can go ahead and announce in March 2017.
You need to hit your list of organizations. At each one, you need to get donations, you need to get volunteers, and you need to get referrals (i.e., other places to speak and 'big fish' to solicit).
Since your campaign strategy absolutely has to anticipate at least $500,000 in donations (otherwise you get laughed at; it may have to be higher), the filing fee represents only 2.8% of that. Which means your strategy should divert not more than 10% of donations to the 'filing fee fund' (until such point as it's fully funded) which means you're going to spend 90% (or very nearly) of income on outreach ads. On the assumption that web advertising can be purchased in very cheap units, that means you're going to need to have ads and place ads quickly.
On fundraising, keep in mind these figures for 2010:
Rubio: $21 million
Crist: $13.5 million
Meek: $8.5 million
Looking at these, truthfully, people who might donate $5,000 probably shouldn't even consider you unless you can realistically make a case for raising an absolute minimum of $1 million. Let's (wildly) guess that you can land 20 max donors, that's $100Gs. If the average of other donors is $100, then that's 9,000 donors to reach $1 mil. Assuming 15 months of fund-raising (ignoring a few early start-up months), that's like 600 donors/month or 20 donors per day. Put that way, it's not astronomically insanely ridiculous. But it is really really hard.
Hopefully by Sept 2017 (six months in), you've got other people handling:
* campaign disclosures
* creation of ads
* placement of ads
* website
(is this enough for 6 months?)
Someone to manage the press release list will be needed, but that can likely wait until sometime into 2018.
Hopefully by six months in, I've also raised at least $70,000 (which @ 10% funds the filing fee).
Candidate qualifying is approximately mid-April 2018. If paying the ~$7,000 qualifying fee is 'an issue', then things are going badly; it could be wise to scale back.
By the time of the August 2018 primary (for those other candidates), I must:
* have vastly out-performed any other minor/independent candidate
* have all essential positions filled (hopefully all volunteers)
* have income such that at least $10,000/week can be spent on outreach
* have an organization providing voter venues on a (near) daily basis.
I will have to go upward from here until November 2018.
major issues
Based on the slogan, I think the first two are clear.
#1
Corporate personhood amendment to the 14th. This makes rock-solid certain the authority to regulate these entities and, in particular, to ban them entirely from political involvement.
#2
Congressional rules. This is going to take a lot of research. Probably it involves things like:
* Single topic bills
* End senate filibuster and various non-majority "holds".
* Eliminate the ability of provisions to anonymously be dropped into last-minute conference bills.
The rest should probably be more "mainstream" issues.
#1
Corporate personhood amendment to the 14th. This makes rock-solid certain the authority to regulate these entities and, in particular, to ban them entirely from political involvement.
#2
Congressional rules. This is going to take a lot of research. Probably it involves things like:
* Single topic bills
* End senate filibuster and various non-majority "holds".
* Eliminate the ability of provisions to anonymously be dropped into last-minute conference bills.
The rest should probably be more "mainstream" issues.
dealing with illegals
There is a sort of continuum of those living in this country. There are citizens, there are legal aliens, and there are illegal aliens. In real life dealing with individuals, it can be tricky fitting each one into the correct category. I also need to factor in that I don't particularly like the idea of citizens having to "have their papers". However, if we could positively identify each legal alien, that would break the continuum and we'd merely need to sort the citizens from the illegal aliens (which has to be easier). So here's what I would do.
Set up a database of legal aliens. Use identity certain technologies like fingerprints, retina scans, DNA, whatever. I'm not particularly disturbed about keeping that kind of information about non-citizens. The first people to go into the database would be the legal aliens. Allow an appropriate amount of time to get them processed. And of course as new legal aliens come in, add them. This includes everyone for any reason - tourist visas and everything. After all, a large percentage of illegal aliens are actually visa overstays.
Then deal with the illegals. Basically offer a visa for everyone who comes forward and applies. I'd come up with some kind of scoring system to identify the most desirable; points for having a job, points for length of time here, deductions for criminal incidents, etc. Except for some who are clearly bad people (an easy example - murders) who simply get deported, everyone's going to get at least a 2-year visa. Best scorers maybe get a 10-year. As they come forward, put them in the legal alien database. Set a deadline (being reasonable about the amount of time required to process all these people). After that, if you're in this county illegally, you go to jail. 1st offense maybe 6 months. Step up from there. If you're in jail, you're not helping your family whether in this country or back home, so you're going to want to avoid that.
Something like the above could clear up the problem with illegal aliens. Then the remaining problem is appropriately setting the limits on legal entry.
Set up a database of legal aliens. Use identity certain technologies like fingerprints, retina scans, DNA, whatever. I'm not particularly disturbed about keeping that kind of information about non-citizens. The first people to go into the database would be the legal aliens. Allow an appropriate amount of time to get them processed. And of course as new legal aliens come in, add them. This includes everyone for any reason - tourist visas and everything. After all, a large percentage of illegal aliens are actually visa overstays.
Then deal with the illegals. Basically offer a visa for everyone who comes forward and applies. I'd come up with some kind of scoring system to identify the most desirable; points for having a job, points for length of time here, deductions for criminal incidents, etc. Except for some who are clearly bad people (an easy example - murders) who simply get deported, everyone's going to get at least a 2-year visa. Best scorers maybe get a 10-year. As they come forward, put them in the legal alien database. Set a deadline (being reasonable about the amount of time required to process all these people). After that, if you're in this county illegally, you go to jail. 1st offense maybe 6 months. Step up from there. If you're in jail, you're not helping your family whether in this country or back home, so you're going to want to avoid that.
Something like the above could clear up the problem with illegal aliens. Then the remaining problem is appropriately setting the limits on legal entry.
slogan
The point here being that our elected officials don't represent us nearly as well as they should. Main causes for this are corporate involvement in politics and the crazy rules which empower legislative leadership while neutering individual members. Both these things need fixing. As well as other steps which empower us.
okay, so the point is fine but the slogan is crap.
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